IAW Conflict Severity Index (CSI)
A proprietary indicator from International Affairs Watch to measure the severity of armed conflicts based on five dimensions: military intensity, civilian impact, escalation risk, humanitarian access, and internationalization.
Gaza 2024
How to interpret the CSI
The index is divided into four severity bands according to the total score obtained.
Limited or sporadic violence. Restricted civilian impact. Contained escalation risk.
Sustained tension with regular violent episodes. Moderate humanitarian impact. Escalation risk present.
High violence or significant humanitarian deterioration. Restrictions on humanitarian access. Elevated escalation risk.
High lethality, severe humanitarian crisis, or probable escalation. Requires urgent international attention.
Important note: The CSI measures the severity of conflict over time. It does not measure 'legitimacy,' 'culpability,' or 'moral value' of the actors involved.
CSI of Monitored Conflicts
Updated severity index for all conflicts under IAW monitoring
No conflicts with published CSI yet. Scores will appear here when available.
View global monitorThe 5 Dimensions of CSI
Each dimension contributes up to 20 points to the total score, evaluating specific aspects of the conflict situation.
Military Intensity (0-20)
Frequency and intensity of hostilities (operations, attacks, clashes).
Civilian Impact (0-20)
Direct harm to civilian population and effects on daily life.
Escalation Risk (0-20)
Probability of conflict intensification in the short term.
Humanitarian Access (0-20)
Restrictions and actual capacity for assistance (food, health, safe corridors).
Internationalization (0-20)
Level of participation or involvement of external actors (military, financial, diplomatic).
Visualization by Dimension
Calculation Methodology
Calculation steps
A score of 0 to 20 is assigned for each of the five dimensions.
The five partial scores are summed.
The total result (0-100) determines the severity band.
Update Frequency
The CSI is recalculated periodically using two time windows to capture both peaks and sustained trends.
Captures activity peaks and abrupt changes in the situation.
Smooths volatility and shows the general trend of the conflict.
Reading Example
Gaza 2024
El CSI se ubica en "Crítico" principalmente por alto impacto civil y restricciones humanitarias. El riesgo de escalada permanece elevado por participación de actores externos y deterioro diplomático.
Highest dimension: Civilian impact and humanitarian restrictions significantly raise the score.
Contained dimension: Military intensity remains at medium levels without recent territorial expansion.
Alert factors: Internationalization and escalation risk keep the conflict in critical zone.
Limitations and Scope
Open sources: The CSI is based on public and verifiable information. There may be underreporting in hard-to-access areas.
Temporal delay: Data may present delays depending on the availability of official reports and source verification.
Monitoring tool: The index is an analytical tool, not a political, legal, or moral verdict on the conflict.
Context needed: The score should be interpreted alongside qualitative analysis and historical context.
The CSI is a constantly evolving tool. International Affairs Watch adjusts the methodology based on feedback and developments in the field of conflict analysis.
How to Cite the CSI
If you use the IAW Conflict Severity Index in your work, you can cite it using the following formats:
Institutional or academic use: If you need to cite the CSI in academic publications, institutional reports, or media, you can contact us for additional information about the methodology.
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